What is the nature of armed conflict in the 21st Century?

In the past 15 years, more than half of the world’s population has lived in direct contact or proximity to significant political violence.įor women and girls, the home remains the most dangerous place. Meanwhile political violence no longer affects only low-income states.

Political instability engenders organised crime, including targeted attacks against police, women, journalists, and migrants. Countries in the Americas have the worst homicide rates by a wide margin, accounting for 37 per cent of the global total in a region that accounts for only 13 per cent of the world’s population. Organised crime and gang violence vary widely across regions. If homicide rates keep climbing at the current rate of 4 per cent, then Sustainable Development Goals 16 – which includes a target ‘to significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere’ – will not be met by 2030. In 2017, almost half a million people across the world were killed in homicides, far surpassing the 89,000 killed in active armed conflicts and the 19,000 killed in terrorist attacks. Today, crime kills far more people than armed conflicts. Furthermore, the regionalisation of conflict, which interlinks political, socio-economic and military issues across borders, has seen many conflicts become longer, more protracted, and less responsive to traditional forms of resolution.

For example, the number of armed groups involved in the Syrian civil war has¬ mushroomed from eight to several thousand since the outbreak of the conflict. At the same time, conflicts are becoming more fragmented. In 2016, more countries experienced violent conflict than at any point in almost 30 years. Unresolved regional tensions, a breakdown in the rule of law, absent or co-opted state institutions, illicit economic gain, and the scarcity of resources exacerbated by climate change, have become dominant drivers of conflict.

And yet, conflict and violence are currently on the rise, with many conflicts today waged between non-state actors such as political militias, criminal, and international terrorist groups. Globally, the absolute number of war deaths has been declining since 1946.

What is the nature of armed conflict in the 21st Century?